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Friday November 11, 2011

www.iris.report

Friday November 11, 2011

The Editors
Nov 11, 2011
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Friday November 11, 2011

www.iris.report

<p>If you want to know why no one predicted the Arab spring or the financial meltdown, Kahneman has a simple, but distressing answer &ndash; it&rsquo;s because we never really had the ability to make a truly analytical assessment; our System One and System Two prevented that from ever happening.</p> <p>To the facts, we add things like, for example, a &ldquo;halo&rdquo; effect, in which we give a seemingly successful leader the benefit of the doubt when things go wrong, because he once was so right. Our desire for a good narrative leads us to omit the power of luck; Kahneman notes that Larry Page and Sergey Brin were willing to sell Google (GOOG) for less than $1 million a year after its founding, but the buyer said the price was too high &ndash; certainly a lucky thing rather than a brilliant thing. Yet everything Google&rsquo;s execs do today is likely to be seen within the rubric of brilliant businessmen.</p> — Jennifer Reingold, Fortune, <a href="http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/11/thinking-fast-and-slow-daniel-kahneman/?section=magazines_fortune" target="_blank">http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/11/thinking-fast-and-slow-daniel-kahneman/?section=magazines_fortune</a>

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Friday November 11, 2011

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